2002 Newsletter

Watch Ove Wildlife in Korea's DMZ Corridor as Railroad is Connected.

Ambassador Stephen W. Bosworth Honorary Chair of the DMZ Forum Dean, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University

There are new relationships--of the two Koreas to each other and to the U.S.--that seem to be leading to peace. “The most far-reaching of the structural changes on the peninsula has been the profound economic weakening of North Korea….The economy is basically broken. Industrial output is only a fraction, perhaps as little as one quarter, of the level of ten years ago….This chronic economic crisis has led inevitably to a shift in North Korea's approach toward the outside world, including South Korea... Without substantial amounts of external assistance, they have no hope of halting…the country's economic decline."

At the same time, South Korea, under President Kim Dae Jung, "has made reconciliation with the North one of the two principal goals of its foreign policy." This is possible because "the long period of competition between South and North is over. The South has clearly won... even in the military sphere." The North "still has the capability of inflicting horrendous damage on the South…, but it is clear that any attempt to use that capability would in effect be suicidal." So the South is safe in offering economic cooperation while assuring the North their goal is not the collapse of the regime but a gradual movement toward reconciliation.

A third hopeful change is South Korea's recognition that the U.S. and Japan should pursue relations with North Korea directly, not through South Korea's coordinated but separate policies. China, too, "has played an important, skillful and constructive role" in North-South Korean relations, which are important to China.

Last year's North-South summit
produced "a number of measures of economic cooperation and confidence building, including the prospective connection of the two national rail systems across the DMZ and the establishment of an industrial zone for South Korean companies in North Korea." At the same time, a high-ranking North Korean general visited Washington, and Secretary of State Madeline Albright visited Pyongyang. While the new U.S. Administration "not surprisingly…decided to undertake a review of North Korean policy and in effect froze contact with Pyongyang until the review could be undertaken," Secretary of State Colin Powell has announced that the U.S. is ready to meet North Korean officials any time, any place without preconditions.

We must be patient with North Korea and not try to control their decision-making. North Korea’s behavior is "sometimes bizarre, but they are not crazy. Experience shows we can deal with them; it also shows they will observe agreements once reached. We must be willing to take 'yes' for an answer. We should not approach representatives of North Korea with an assumption it will not succeed."

While current decision-making in North Korea is unclear, "I believe…that the events of last year and the objective conditions that shaped those events have permanently changed the assumptions and expectations that have governed our thinking about the Korean peninsula since the end of the Korean War. There will remain "a need for a strong military deterrence" via "a close alliance…between South Korea and the U.S." Even after the military threat, South Korea-U.S. relations will be important, and public opinion in both countries should be formed to support that long-term relationship.

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